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    基于复杂网络的电煤供应链网络鲁棒性研究

    Research on the robustness of thermal coal supply chain networks basedon complex network

    • 摘要: 随着能源需求的不断增长,电煤供应链的稳定运行成为保障电力供应的关键。然而,资源与需求的不匹配、自然灾害、绿色低碳要求、需求波动及政策影响等多种因素对电煤供应链构成了重大挑战。基于改进的引力模型,运用复杂网络理论构建了4级电煤供应链网络,通过模拟仿真揭示了该网络的无标度和小世界特性。分析了低碳政策的实施、企业生存适应能力及企业规模对电煤供应链网络鲁棒性的影响。比较了在随机干扰和蓄意干扰下电煤供应链网络的鲁棒性表现。研究结果表明,有效的政策实施、较强的企业生存适应能力以及大规模企业比例的增加,均能显著增强电煤供应链的鲁棒性。

       

      Abstract: With the continuous growth in energy demand, the stable operation of the thermal coal supply chain has become crucial for ensuring power supply. However, the thermal coal supply chain faces major challenges due to various factors including mismatches between resources and demand, natural disasters, green low-carbon requirements, demand fluctuations, and policy influences. Based on an improved gravity model, a four-level thermal coal supply chain network was constructed, and its scale-free and small-world characteristics were simulated and revealed. The impacts of low-carbon policy implementation, enterprise survival adaptability and enterprise scale on the robustness of the thermal coal supply chain network were analyzed, and the robustness performances of the thermal coal supply chain network under random interference and intentional interference were compared. The research results indicated that effective policy implementation, strong adaptability to enterprise survival, and an increase in the proportion of large-scale enterprises could significantly enhance the robustness of the thermal coal supply chain.

       

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