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    基于Penman-Monteith模型的新街矿区环境参数波动敏感性分析及应用

    Sensitivity analysis and application of environmental parameter fluctuationsin Xinjie mining area based on Penman-Monteith model

    • 摘要: 针对采用Penman-Monteith模型在无气象站点区域计算参比蒸散(ET0)应用受限的问题,采用蒙特卡洛法数值仿真分别对计算ET0所需的空气温度、湿度、净辐射及风速进行静态与动态数值波动概率仿真。研究结果显示,净辐射是对计算ET0产生波动的主要影响因素,空气温度、湿度及风速是次要影响因素。通过采用新街台格庙矿区2022年度气象数据,对温度、湿度、风速采用月度均值与实时气象数据计算对比,发现两者数据总值及各季度数据相差可控制在1%以内。初步分析认为,在气象站点缺乏的区域采用月度均值替代次要影响因素的实时气象数据,可在降低气象站点布设成本的同时满足生产应用需求。

       

      Abstract: In order to solve the problem that the Penman-Monteith formula is limited in the calculation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) in the area without meteorological stations, Monte Carlo numerical simulation is used to simulate the static and dynamic numerical fluctuation probability of air temperature and humidity, net radiation and wind speed required to calculate ET0 respectively. The results showed that net radiation is the main influencing factor affects ET0 fluctuation, and air temperature, humidity and wind speed are secondary factors. By comparing the monthly average and real-time meteorological data of temperature, humidity, and wind speed using the 2022 meteorological data from Xinjie Taigemiao mining area, it was found that the total value of the two data and the difference in quarterly data can be controlled within 1%. This article preliminarily analyzes that using monthly averages instead of real-time meteorological data of secondary influencing factors in areas lacking meteorological stations can meet production and application needs while reducing the cost of setting up meteorological stations.

       

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