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    红外特征深度挖掘算法驱动的煤压裂破坏时间动态定量预测模型

    Dynamic and Quantitative Prediction Model of Remaining Time for Coal Fracturing Instability Driven by Deep Intelligent Extraction Algorithm on Infrared Radiation Data

    • 摘要: 煤岩失稳预测是采矿与安全工程的重要课题。经典的煤材料失稳预测方法依赖监测信息异常识别,缺乏精确定量与动态预测能力,而深度学习算法为煤破坏定量回归预测提供了有效路径。本研究以红外辐射信息驱动的轻量级耦合深度神经网络为基座,构建煤压裂破坏剩余时间动态回归预测方法。基于预处理的红外辐射时间序列数据,训练轻量级耦合智能架构以自动提取失稳关键特征,通过模型验证与特征优化,确定红外图像温度均值、最大最小值及中位数为最优的输入特征组合。在独立测试集测试并评估对比,所提模型R²达0.9895,较目前已知岩石破坏时间预测的最优方法提升2.52%;MAPE为9.78%,较已采用该指标评估的最优结果提升42.30%,结果验证了红外特征深度提取算法的进步性与高效性。置信区间不确定性分析显示,预测误差置信区间整体贴近时间轴且多数时段误差幅度低于25s,证明模型重复训练-测试结果鲁棒性强、预测稳定性良好。该模型可实现对煤失稳剩余时间进行精确的动态定量预报,为矿山动力灾害早期预警提供重要科研参考与应用前景。

       

      Abstract: The prediction of coal rock instability is a significant topic in mining and safety engineering. Classical methods for predicting the instability of coal materials rely on the identification of abnormal monitoring information, lacking precise quantitative and dynamic prediction capabilities. However, deep learning algorithms provide an effective pathway for quantitative regression prediction of coal destruction. This study constructs a dynamic regression prediction method for the remaining time of coal fracturing destruction based on an infrared radiation information-driven lightweight coupled deep neural network. By training a lightweight coupled intelligent architecture on preprocessed infrared radiation time series data, the study automatically extracts key instability features. Through model validation and feature optimization, it is determined that the optimal combination of input features consists of the mean, maximum, minimum, and median temperatures of the infrared images. After testing and evaluating the proposed model on an independent test set, the R² value reaches 0.9895, a 2.52% improvement over the currently known optimal methods for predicting rock destruction time. The MAPE is 9.78%, a 42.30% improvement over the optimal results evaluated using this indicator. These results validate the efficiency of the infrared feature deep extraction algorithm. The uncertainty analysis of confidence intervals shows that the prediction error confidence intervals are generally close to the time axis, and the error amplitude is less than 25 seconds for most periods, proving that the model has strong robustness in repeated training-test results and good prediction stability. This model can accurately dynamically quantify the remaining time of coal instability, providing important scientific research references and application prospects for early warning of mining dynamic disasters.

       

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