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    2025−2026年中国煤炭产业经济形势研究报告

    Research report on the economic situation of China’s coal industry from 2025 to 2026

    • 摘要: 煤炭产业景气指数能够准确反映煤炭产业经济形势,对国内煤炭市场相关政策的制定和保障国家能源安全具有重要意义。运用自主开发的中国煤炭产业景气指数模型,对2025年度我国煤炭产业经济形势进行了系统研究。结果表明:2025年,在全球经济不确定性加剧与国内绿色低碳转型加速的背景下,煤炭产业在转型中深度调整。中矿(北京)煤炭产业景气指数全年呈“下降−小幅下降−小幅回升−持续回升”的波动态势,2025年末升至101.91,整体小幅上升。基于供给端、需求端等各方面指标,对2025年煤炭产业运行情况进行了详细分析。展望2026年,煤炭产业预计将持续面临新能源替代深化、下游需求增长乏力等压力,供需总体保持宽松格局,景气指数预计温和波动。基于此,提出通过优化生产布局、构建弹性供给体系、深化煤炭与新能源融合、紧抓“人工智能+”契机等措施,推动煤炭产业向安全、高效、绿色、智能的高质量发展阶段稳步迈进。

       

      Abstract: The coal industry prosperity index can accurately reflect the economic situation of coal industry, which is of great significance for formulating policies related to the domestic coal market and ensuring the national energy security. A systematic study was conducted on the economic situation of China’s coal industry in 2025 using the independently developed China Coal Industry Prosperity Index model. The results showed that against the backdrop of intensifying global economic uncertainty and the accelerated domestic transition to green and low-carbon development, the coal industry underwent significant adjustments in 2025. The Zhongkuang (Beijing) Coal Industry Prosperity Index exhibited a fluctuating trend throughout the year, characterized by “decline-slight decline-slight recovery-continued recovery” and rose to 101.91 by the end of the year, reflecting an overall modest increase. The report further analyzed the operational conditions of the coal industry in 2025 based on various indicators from the supply side, demand side and other aspects. Looking ahead to 2026, the coal industry is expected to continue facing pressures such as the deepening substitution by new energy sources and sluggish growth in downstream demand; the overall supply-demand balance is projected to remain loose, with the prosperity index forecast to experience mild fluctuations. In response, the report proposes measures to steadily advance the coal industry toward a high-quality development stage that is safe, efficient, green and intelligent, and these measures include optimizing production layouts, building a resilient supply system, deepening the integration of coal and new energy, and seizing the opportunities presented by “AI+”.

       

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