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    中国省际能源安全多维测度及时空特征分析

    Analysis on Multi-dimensional Measurement and Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Inter-provincial Energy Security in China

    • 摘要: 随着经济高质量发展与低碳转型持续深化,国际地缘冲突日益加剧、中美战略博弈不断升级,能源安全重要性不断提升,并成为中国战略目标的约束条件和国际竞争的重要角力点。本文在新形势新背景下拓展能源安全内涵,构建了包含经济、政治、社会、环境和气候五个维度的能源安全指标评价体系,运用熵值法对中国30个省级行政区的能源安全水平进行测算,同时运用K均值聚类法、核密度曲线及耦合协调模型,系统分析其时空分异特征、内在驱动机制以及协同水平差异。研究结论如下:第一,从时间维度来看,中国能源安全水平呈现持续上升态势;空间维度上表现为“西高东低、北高南低”的格局,且随着时间演进呈现由西向东强化的趋势。第二,能源安全总体水平的提升主要得益于经济、社会及气候三大子系统的驱动作用。第三,能源安全治理的靶向领域为能源安全低水平省份中政治、社会、气候三个维度。第四,样本期内各省能源安全系统的协调发展水平呈现出持续向好的演进趋势,整体的协调发展度由“濒临失调”阶段逐步过渡至“勉强协调”阶段。

       

      Abstract: As high-quality economic development and low-carbon transition advance steadily, international geopolitical conflicts intensify, and China-U.S. strategic competition escalates, the significance of energy security has been on a continuous rise. It has become a critical constraint on China's strategic goals and a key arena in international competition. This paper expands the concept of energy security in the new context, constructing an energy-security indicator evaluation system covering five dimensions: economy, politics, society, environment, and climate. Employing the entropy method, it assesses the energy-security levels of China’s 30 provincial-level administrative regions. Furthermore, it systematically analyzes their spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics, underlying driving mechanisms, and disparities in coordination levels using K-means clustering, kernel density estimation curves, and a coupling coordination model. The research findings are as follows: First, from a temporal perspective, China's energy security level has shown a steady upward trend; spatially, it presents a pattern of “higher in the west and lower in the east, higher in the north and lower in the south, ” with a gradual strengthening trend from west to east over time. Second, the overall improvement in energy security levels is mainly driven by the economic, social, and climate subsystems. Third, the key targets for energy security governance lie in the political, social, and climate dimensions in provinces with low energy security levels. Fourth, during the study period, the coordinated development level of provincial energy security systems continued to improve, with the overall coordination degree evolving from the “near-disharmony” stage to the “barely coordinated” stage.

       

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