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    基于VMD-CNN-BiLSTM人工智能算法的瓦斯浓度预测研究

    Research on gas concentration prediction based on VMD-CNN-BiLSTM artificial intelligence algorithm

    • 摘要: 针对现有煤矿瓦斯浓度预测模型在预测精度和鲁棒性方面难以同步提升,进而制约瓦斯安全监测预警的可靠性的问题,提出一种融合变分模态分解(VMD)、卷积神经网络(CNN)与双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)的组合预测模型(VMD-CNN-BiLSTM)。首先,采用VMD对原始瓦斯浓度时序数据进行模态分解与重构,以降低时序数据非平稳性、噪声干扰和模态混叠对预测建模的影响;随后,构建CNN-BiLSTM耦合网络,由CNN提取各模态分量的局部波动特征和多尺度特征,由BiLSTM捕获瓦斯浓度时序数据的双向长时序依赖关系,并通过特征融合输出预测结果。以平顶山矿区某工作面瓦斯浓度监测数据为研究对象开展试验验证,并与CNN、LSTM、BiLSTM、CNN-LSTM和CNN-BiLSTM等模型进行对比分析。结果表明,VMD-CNN-BiLSTM模型预测性能最优,决定系数R2为98.159 7%,均方误差MSE为0.000 694 99,平均绝对误差MAE为0.019 251;相较于对比模型,R2提高3.754 0~32.485 4个百分点,MSE降低0.001 4~0.012 8,MAE降低0.012 1~0.066 7。研究结果表明,VMD与CNN-BiLSTM的融合能够有效增强瓦斯浓度非平稳时序数据的特征表达能力和时序建模能力,可为煤矿瓦斯浓度超前预测及安全监测预警提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: To address the difficulty in simultaneously improving the prediction accuracy and robustness of existing coal mine gas concentration prediction models, which limits the reliability of gas safety monitoring and early warning, a hybrid prediction model integrating variational mode decomposition (VMD), a convolutional neural network (CNN), and a bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM), termed VMD-CNN-BiLSTM, was proposed. First, VMD was employed to decompose and reconstruct the original gas concentration time-series data, thereby reducing the adverse effects of data nonstationarity, noise interference, and mode mixing on prediction modeling. Subsequently, a coupled CNN-BiLSTM network was constructed. The CNN was used to extract local fluctuation characteristics and multiscale features from each modal component, whereas the BiLSTM was employed to capture bidirectional long-term temporal dependencies in the gas concentration time-series data. The extracted features were then fused to generate the final prediction results. Experimental validation was conducted using gas concentration monitoring data collected from a working face in the Pingdingshan mining area, and the proposed model was compared with the CNN, long short-term memory network (LSTM), BiLSTM, CNN-LSTM, and CNN-BiLSTM models. The results demonstrated that the VMD-CNN-BiLSTM model achieved the best prediction performance, with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 98.1597%, a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.00069499, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.019251. Compared with the benchmark models, the proposed model increased R2 by 3.7540 to 32.4854 percentage points, while reducing MSE by 0.0014 to 0.0128 and MAE by 0.0121 to 0.0667. These results indicate that integrating VMD with CNN-BiLSTM can effectively enhance the feature representation and temporal modeling capabilities for nonstationary gas concentration time-series data. The proposed model can therefore provide technical support for advance gas concentration prediction, safety monitoring, and early warning in coal mines.

       

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