Analysis of China’s energy development situation in 2026: Steady progress and deepening transformation

As the opening year of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, 2026 will be a critical period for balancing energy supply security and low-carbon transformation. Based on projections from the CESFOM model, China’s total energy consumption is expected to reach 6.35 to 6.45 billion tons of standard coal equivalent with an annual growth rate of 2.9% to 4.5% and an energy consumption elasticity coefficient of 0.6-0.9 calculated by the power-generation coal consumption method. In 2026, coal consumption is projected to increase slightly and may grow by about 1.8% if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue and extreme weather events occur. Oil consumption is expected to remain generally stable, although demand for petrochemical feedstock may decline marginally due to higher oil prices caused by worsening Middle East tensions. Natural gas consumption is likely to maintain moderate growth, but uncertainties in both prices and supply will remain. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption is expected to rise to nearly 24%. On the supply side, coal output is projected to increase slightly to around 4.86 billion tons in 2026, while coal imports may decline. Crude oil production is expected to remain above 200 million tons, and natural gas output is forecast to reach about 278.1 billion cubic meters. Total electricity consumption is projected at 10.88 to 10.99 trillion kWh, up by 4.9% to 6.0% year on year. New energy installations will dominate capacity additions, while coal-fired power will continue shifting from a baseload source to a more supportive and flexible regulating role.